The global rice market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as a potentially very strong El Niño, rising input costs and geopolitical tensions threaten to disrupt production, trade flows and price stability. Against this backdrop, S&P Global Energy is collaborating with the Indian Rice Exporters’ Federation (IREF) for the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) 2026 to provide a comprehensive assessment of emerging risks across the global rice value chain.

The development assumes significance as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has forecast a 97% probability that El Niño will persist into early spring 2027, while putting the likelihood of a very strong El Niño during October-December 2026 at 81%. NOAA says such an event could rank among the strongest El Niño episodes in the historical record going back to 1950.

Why Rice Is Especially Vulnerable

For rice, the implications could be substantial. Unlike commodities that can absorb weather disruptions through shorter production cycles or wider geographic diversification, rice depends heavily on predictable water availability and stable weather conditions across successive planting and harvesting periods. A prolonged El Niño therefore creates risks not merely for one crop cycle but for acreage decisions, water availability, farm economics and global inventories.

S&P Global projects global rice production to fall by around 9 million metric tonnes in marketing year 2026/27 to 536.4 million tonnes. Major producers and trading nations, including India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, Myanmar and the Philippines, are likely to experience varying degrees of pressure from weather uncertainty, changing acreage, water constraints and higher production costs.

Costs Are Rising Too

The supply challenge is being compounded by the cost environment. Fertiliser, fuel and transportation costs have risen amid continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potentially squeezing farm margins and influencing planting decisions. For exporters and importers, higher freight and logistics costs could further complicate already changing global trade routes.

A More Nuanced Picture

Yet, the market outlook is not simply a story of falling production. S&P Global expects exports to remain relatively resilient, supported by substantial carry-in stocks from 2025/26. At the same time, global rice import demand is projected to increase by nearly 4 million tonnes to 59.7 million tonnes, as importing countries seek to secure supplies against possible harvest disruptions.

This combination could gradually tighten global balances. The global stock-to-use ratio is projected at around 36%, which remains comfortable by historical standards, but the direction of movement warrants closer monitoring. Any further deterioration in production expectations or a sudden increase in precautionary buying could translate into sharper price movements.

The S&P Global assessment at BIRC 2026 will examine production, consumption, trade and stocks on a country-by-country basis, while assessing how traditional trade flows could change. It will also explore whether current rice prices adequately reflect the potential impact of El Niño and what the next 52 weeks could mean for exporters, importers, millers, traders and food companies.

BIRC 2026 Adds Global Crop Survey as Registrations Surge

The S&P Global collaboration comes at a time when BIRC 2026 is itself emerging as a major global platform for the rice industry. Registrations have crossed 19,193, including 2,135 international buyers, almost three months ahead of the event.

Organised by IREF, BIRC 2026 will be held from October 23 to 25 at Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi, with organisers expecting more than 30,000 participants from over 120 countries. The official event information confirms the October 23-25 dates and positions BIRC as a major international gathering dedicated to the rice sector.

The 2026 edition is also attempting to move beyond the conventional trade-exhibition model. One of its key new initiatives will be a coordinated global crop survey, aimed at developing a clearer assessment of global rice production and helping the industry project future prices based on expected demand and supply. The initiative is particularly relevant at a time when weather uncertainty makes conventional supply forecasting more difficult.

BIRC will additionally feature business-focused knowledge sessions, app-enabled B2B meetings and curated experience zones showcasing innovation and the global significance of rice.

India’s Strategic Position

The growing participation reflects a broader shift in the rice industry—from simply trading physical grain to managing increasingly complex combinations of climate risk, geopolitics, input costs, inventories and trade policy.

For India, the timing is strategically important. As one of the world’s leading rice producers and exporters, India’s production and export policies can have a disproportionate influence on global availability and prices. A climate-driven tightening of supplies could therefore increase the importance of India’s role in maintaining international food security.

The Road Ahead

The central message emerging ahead of BIRC 2026 is clear: the next phase of the global rice market will be shaped as much by information and risk management as by production itself. With El Niño potentially intensifying just as the new marketing year unfolds, reliable crop intelligence, transparent market data and closer coordination between producers, exporters, importers and policymakers will become critical.

BIRC 2026, therefore, comes at a crucial juncture—not merely as a marketplace for rice, but as a platform where the industry can assess and prepare for a fundamentally more volatile global food market.